Fantasy Football Picks - My Top Five Tight Ends As of May 2010
These are my fantasy football picks for Tight Ends as of May 2010. Needless to say, depending on when you read this you need to do your own due diligence and evaluate the status of players. Stuff like injuries, team changes and suspensions.
Without further ado, Here are my fantasy football picks top five Tight Ends.
1. Dallas Clark/Colts- Clark is just simply too big for most defensive backs to cover and too fast for most linebackers. Clark takes some vicious hits and still hangs on to the ball, and with Peyton Manning under center Clark has become the most dangerous TE in the NFL.
2. Antonio Gates/Chargers- With QB Philip Rivers still intact, there's no reason to believe that Gates won't again be a valuable receiving target for the Chargers. A key here will be the re-signing of WR Vincent Jackson, as without him teams will be able to concentrate on covering Gates.
3. Tony Gonzalez/Falcons- Though Gonzalez did not have one of his typical seasons in 2009, he was nonetheless still one of the top TE's in football. With another year of playing experience with QB Matt Ryan, Gonzalez should once again be considered one of the top choices at TE this year.
4. Vernon Davis/49ers- Davis really exploded last season under Mike Singletary, and this season should render similar results. Davis is their number one receiving threat and presents matchup problems for many opponents. Whether it's Alex Smith or David Carr at QB, Davis should be a valuable fantasy starter.
5. Jason Witten/Cowboys- No matter what number you think Witten should be ranked at, if you end up drafting him you won't be disappointed. Witten has been the most reliable target the Cowboys have had over the past five or six seasons, but needs to improve in his TD totals if he wants to move up.
Now this is the short list. There are 10 more tight ends that you are welcome to use for your own fantasy football picks. Just check them out at JohnnyNFL.com. Follow me @johnnynfl on Twitter for immediate updates.
Fantasy Football 2010 Rankings With Auction Values and Humor
The following rankings are based on a fantasy football player's year to end season value. If a draft or auction were to occur today this is the rank and value we place on the players based on their past performance and predicted future production. The basis for the valuations is a 10 team league starting 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 Defense with a 50% yardage and 50% TD scoring system with no points awarded for receptions. The rankings are updated every Tuesday morning, allowing players to value their teams, analyze player values for trades and plan future moves to get the most return out of your Fantasy Football players.
RANK PLAYER DESCRIPTION AUCTION $
1 Chris Johnson Titans, RB
Faster than a speeding Usain Bolt, more powerful than a locomotive, able to jump tall lineman on a 4th down, it's a Falcon it's a Jet, it's Chris Johnson. $44
2 Adrian Peterson Vikings, RB
Despite having some erratic games and fumbling issues, if anyone's going to have a record setting year in '10, it feels like it could be AP. $40
3 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars, RB
2009 stats feel like it could be his ceiling, even so, no complaints.....offense remains stable and a repeat performance very likely. $35
4 Ray Rice Ravens, RB
His weekly production is as reliable as Rush Limbaugh's 4th donut of the day. $34
5 Micheal Turner Falcons, RB
The Burner......if in the '08 season he was fueled by petroleum products......he apparently switched to "easy bake oven" technology '09.....he'll get it back on track in '10. $30
6 Frank Gore 49ers, RB
The forecast calls for high weekly averages with spotty nagging injuries all season. $27
7 Steven Jackson Rams, RB
This much potential hasn't been squandered since Matt Damon turned down Famke Jannsen in Rounders. $25
8 Andre Johnson Texans, WR
2009 receiving yards leader by over 200 yds. Potential for even more TD's, but his performance is tied to Schuab staying healthy. $24
9 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals, WR
If Warner retires, the Cardinals WR's are going to be like Rage Against the Machine trying to go on without Zach de la Rocha. $23
10 Cedric Benson Bears, RB
The question is....does his deal with the devil extend into the 2010 season? Or does he go back to the Cedric we know and hate? $22
11 Ryan Grant Packers, RB
Not the sexiest RB in terms of flash, but he does his job well......oddly the exact opposite can be said of Megan Fox. $21
12 Jamaal Charles Chiefs, RB
The Chiefs miserable team is not doing him any favors, but he is the kind of guy that is going to find a way to get his. $21
13 DeAngelo Williams Panthers,RB
The perks at a time share pitch are all fun and games, but make sure you know what the Panthers are selling before you buy...basically, a full split of two great backs. $21
14 Vincent Jackson Chargers, WR
Is to San Diego WR's what MadMen is to AMC.....both have made something completely irrelevant worth watching now. $20
15 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers,RB
Although we don't expect him to be unbelievable in '10; being the lead RB in PIT guarentee's a certain level of scoring. $19
16 Reggie Wayne Colts, WR
Like Charlize Theron, were not sure what we'll get out of Reggie next; the hottie in The Italian Job or the psycho in Monster that murders your fantasy season. He killed fantasy owners down the stretch of '09. $19
17 Aaron Rodgers Packers,QB
If his offensive line continues to give him the sandlot approved 5 banana count again next year like they did the second half of '09, we expect him to be the top rated fantasy QB again. $19
18 Drew Brees Saints, QB
In each of the past 4 years he's put up a minimum of 4,300 yds and 26 tds. Not too bad of numbers to build a fantasy team around. $19
19 DeSean Jackson Eagles, WR
Despite the fact that is was a turbulent ride with big swings in production....he had the highest average pts/game among Fantasy WR's last year. $19
20 Brandon Marshall Broncos, WR
It seems like every year leading up to Fantasy Drafts/Auctions, there are a lot of questions and reasons not to go after #15...for now we remain very optimistic on his '10 season. $19
21 Peyton Manning Colts, QB
Is he pimping any insurance companies on TV yet? If not he should, because when he's your FF QB, you always feel like your in good hands. $18
22 Miles Austin Cowboys, WR
We found out that his 200 yd game was not a one hit wonder last year....now we're curious if his '09 season was....if it's not, look for Blind Melon, The Proclaimers, Chumbawumba and Hanson to be knocking on his door for advice. $18
23 Randy Moss Patriots, WR
Don't get me wrong, its not that we don't like Moss' '09 numbers, its just we're kind of left with a bad taste in our mouths with how he went out in his last few games. $18
24 Thomas Jones Jets, RB
If you seek flashy highlight reel TD replays, go elsewhere, but if you like reliable production, you've come to the right place...assuming Father Time doesn't finally take him down. $17
25 Ronnie Brown Miami, RB
He's still young and we love him when healthy, but how many times can he bounce back from injury and be his old self. $17
26 Calvin Johnson Lions, WR
Looking more like a 'second tier' transforming action figure of the 80's......Gobot in disguise! $15
27 Beanie Wells Cardinals, RB
The trend at the end of 2009 season was Wells finally started getting the bulk of the carries over Hightower. If that continues into 2010, Wells will post solid numbers. $15
28 Knowshon Moreno Broncos, RB
With just under 1000 yds rushing and 9 total td's in 2009, he didn't exactly blow us away, but it wasn't a disaster either. Entering his second year he'll be counted on more and should deliver. $14
29 Anquan Boldin Cardinals, WR
If it's not too late, someone call Jeff Probst, Boldin would absolutely destroy the competition in an "injury bug" challenge on Survivor. $14
30 Joesph Addai Colts, RB
Addai's only 26...apparently he, Danny Almonte and Greg Oden all get their fake id's from the same place. $13
31 Kevin Smith Lions, RB
If you can talk yourself into a Detroit Lions RB not named Barry Sanders, then by all means. $12
32 Pierre Thomas
Saints, RB
He plays Suzanne Summers in the Saints aggravating Three's Company sitcom. He is the hottest by far, yet Mike Bell in the role of the butch brunette gets far too much screen time $12
33 Tom Brady Patriots, QB
Like DeNiro/Pacino in Godfather II & Heat...Brady/Moss had some incredible highs, lets hope 2010 doesn't turn into a collect the paycheck year and pump out a 'Righteous Kill' type season. $12
34 Sidney Rice Vikings, WR
He'd still be good, but if Favre retires, we're not as bullish on Rice with T Jack or Gus throwing to him. $10
35 Greg Jennings Packers, WR
His reversal of fortune last season rivals only that of an ameteur competitive eater; one minute focused and poised for a Coney Island Championship, the next he's got semi-digested wet hot dogs & buns all over his shoes. $10
36 Roddy White Falcons, WR
Seriously, Mr. White....Mr. Blonde wants to know, "are you going to bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?" $10
37 Steve Smith Carolina, WR
He's still near the front of the plane, it just feels like he's moved from first class to businees class after last year. $10
38 Matt Schaub Texans, QB
The under appreciated girl in high school who you knew was hot and now you're too late to the party. $9
39 Dallas Clark Colts, TE
Dallas International Airport is the nation's 3rd busiest, Dallas Clark is our #1 ranked TE. Suck it airport. $9
40 Antonio Gates Chargers, TE
No signs of SD going back to a run heavy offense with the aging LT-Style Electric Slider (he don't like that call) $9
41 Vernon Davis 49ers, TE
Has all the physical gifts to be in the movie Avatar, he just couldn't learn how to speak Na'Vi. $8
42 Chad Ochocinco Bengals, WR
He's never been a TD machine; it was always the consistent big yards & receptions that made him special, but with declining numbers in those areas, he starts to look more ordinary. $7
43 Phillip Rivers Chargers,QB
Trending well; since 2007 he's increased Yardage and TD totals while reducing INT's every year. $7
44 Owen Daniels Texans, TE
This ranking assumes a full recovery and return to 2009 form, when he was a top TE. $7
45 Matt Forte Bears, RB
The teen equivalent of going from Prom King to Chess Club in one year. High School can be so cruel. $7
46 Jonathon Stewart Panthers, RB
Would love him if he was the workhorse back in this offense, but might have to wait a little while longer for that scenario to play out. $7
47 Marques Colston Saints, WR
That's Marcus with a "Q". Oh, of course it is Mrs. Colston, what a lovely child. $6
48 Steve Smith Giants, WR
A great #2 Fantasy WR that will give you week in week out receptions and yardage. $6
49 Santonio Holmes Steelers, WR
If Santonio Holmes career parallels Larry Holmes career we believe next season could be the Gerry Cooney fight where Holmes really finds his stride. $6
50 Tony Romo Cowboys, QB
Tony Romo does a little too much peacocking to be a true Cowboy. He fell flat in the final game. He has been a bit streaky but with Austin, Witten and Jones their offense looks to be dangerous. $6
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Colts-Titans - A Tale of the Winning and the Winless
In a case of extremes, the 4-0 Colts step into Tennessee to face the disappointing 0-4 Titans. For Indianapolis, Peyton & co. are making winning look easy. The Titans, on the other hand, have already surpassed their loss total from last season as they try to keep their season alive against an explosive Colts squad.
Colts on Offense
As always, the Indy offensive attack starts with Peyton, who has completed 71% of his passes and is playing near-perfect football. Peyton is making everyone around him better, including rookie receiver Austin Collie and 2nd year man Pierre Garcon. Manning should look to feed them early and keep their confidence going. Then there's veterans Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who have the potential to make big plays anytime they get the ball. Peyton should have a field day with this group against Tennessee's league-worst pass defense and a beaten-up secondary. On the ground, Joseph Addai can wear down the Titans and rookie Donald Brown is versatile enough to catch the ball and make plays out of the backfield. Indy's high-powered offense can overwhelm the Titans and demoralize them in the 1st half. Defensively, Tennessee has to use their pride and the crowd's energy to their advantage and just play like they have nothing to lose. That could take pressure off the daunting task of defending Peyton and the Colts.
Titans on Offense
Unlike Indy, the Titans haven't had the same QB leadership from Kerry Collins, who has thrown 6 picks in 4 games this season. Still, it looks like Jeff Fisher is sticking with his veteran for now. Plenty of people within the Titans organization may be questioning Fisher's decision and wondering when Vince Young will get another chance. But as for this week, Collins or Young, it really doesn't matter because neither one will outscore Peyton. To be fair, the 36 year-old Collins is not all to blame. The rushing duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White has underachieved so far, especially in the past 2 games. Johnson can give the Titans a spark if he breaks a few runs for big gains, and he is also a safe receiving option. Collins will look to rookie Kenny Britt, who has become a top receiver for the Titans. Nate Washington has shown that he can be a good redzone option by catching a touchdown in each of his last 3 games. The Titans need to capitalize on those situations as well as 3rd down conversions if they want to make this game interesting. The Tennessee O-line also has to deal with Indy's front 4 on defense, including Dwight Freeney's dizzying spin moves. This will make it that much tougher for the immobile Collins to get rid of the football.
The Titans have another chance to win their first game of the season, but unfortunately for them they'll be running into the wrong team this week. Peyton and the Colts will keep their streak going, as Tennessee keeps their's going too.
Prediction
Indianapolis 30
Tennessee 17
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10 Fantasy Football Players to Target in the Mid Rounds
In the coming months I'm sure you'll hear a lot about studs, duds and sleepers. Here is a list of players that really don't fall into any of those categories. These are solid players currently going in the mid rounds that if you're aware of can allow you to be much more confident in the early rounds.
You can then take advantage of the best players available because you'll know what to expect in the rounds to come and won't draft simply based on need. Although these aren't all big-name players, targeting these guys in the mid-rounds can change your entire draft strategy and the results you see significantly.
Running Backs
1. Cedric Benson - a new tackle and veteran weapons around him. The Bengals have put in new zone and man blocking schemes to accommodate his North-South running style and were pleasantly surprised with his speed on sweeps per John Clayton's inside the huddle. Seems primed to take advantage of a great opportunity in a resurgent offense and will be the lone featured back. He's being drafted any where between rounds 4-8, excellent value in the 6th and later.
2. Derrick Ward - although Brandon Jacobs wearing defenses down and the Giants great offensive line had a lot to do with Ward's success in New York , he did still manage to put up over 1,000 yards as part of a 3-headed monster. The Bucs pretty much cleaned house in the off-season and are looking for a fresh start. I think Ward is clearly the most talented and reliable of the backs in Tampa Bay and I would look for him to outperform his current ADP of 54th overall.
3. LenDale White - is 20 pounds lighter and coming into a contract year. The Titans are probably not going to be as good this year without Albert Haynesworth and Tennessee would like to expand Chris Johnson's role, but he still scores a lot (22 times in the last two years, 15 times last year). Johnson's size is an issue and he did get injured in last year's playoff game. All in all, at 71 overall ADP he is a great value especially in scoring leagues.
4. Rashard Mendenhall - will get a chance on short yardage and goaline opportunities for one of the best franchises around. His shoulder is healed, he has fresh legs and I would expect the Steelers to use him much more especially in the second half of the season when the wheels tend to fall off for fast Willie Parker. Current ADP is 97th overall so keep an eye out for him in rounds 9 and higher.
Quarterbacks
5. Donovan McNabb - the Eagles really took care of their star this off-season with a new contract, drafting multiple assets on offense and trading for a stud left tackle. Plus, I still don't think Donovan has forgot about when Andy Reid benched him last year. He could really make a savvy owner's team in the 6th round where is currently being drafted.
6. Matt Schaub - a low-end no. 1 quarterback being picked in the mid rounds 6-8. He filled in nicely for me last year when Houston played Detroit and Cincinnati back-to-back before getting injured. Has potential to break out with a great surrounding cast. He was 5th in points per game at quarterback per Chris Dowling of footballguys.com, and like Chris says his value comes down to if he can stay healthy.
7. Tony Romo - people will sleep on him because he no longer has T.O and Dallas is expected to shift to a more run oriented offense. However, I read an intriguing comment from Carson Palmer in a radio interview recently about how much Jon Kitna really helped him during his best years so far. Don't forget he still has one of the best tight end's and offensive lines in the game. I'd expect him to start a little slower but end much stronger due to the lack of drama without T.O. and extra guidance from Kitna this year to provide solid stats for his current ADP of 59th overall.
Wide Receivers
8. OchoCinco - hampered by injury and losing his quarterback last year. Most people just don't like him or are tired of hearing about his antics but the fact is that he should have a much better year in 09'. If he slips past the fourth round be prepared to pull the trigger.
9. Bernard Berrian - now that Favre is officially with the Vikings, his stock should steadily rise. Although Minnesota won't live and die by Brett's gunslinger style likes teams in his past, I will still expect him to air it out enough for Berrian to be a great look in the mid rounds 6-8 as a WR3 with potential for solid WR 2 numbers or a solid flex play. I mentioned him in my article titled "The Favre effect" as the biggest beneficiary of the signing as well.
10. Anthony Gonzalez - probably the most overlooked 3rd year receiver this year. The Colts still have a legit no. 1 even without Harrison, a tier 1 tight end in Dallas Clark, not to mention Peyton Manning. Peyton trusted him in clutch situations last year so he's not going to shy away from giving Gonzo more targets. Currently going in the late 5th which is little high for me but still definitely somebody to keep an eye on.
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Super Bowl Fantasy Football Contest Forecast
The end of the football season has arrived, and with it, one final chance to bask in the glory of a fantasy football championship. To help you navigate your team to the title, here is a look at the players involved.
Player 1
- Drew Brees: Brees has thrown six touchdowns without an interception in the postseason, and has averaged 222 passing yards per game. He faces a Colts defense that was 14th in the league against the pass, and 10th in passing scores allowed.
- Peyton Manning: Manning has been his usual highly impressive self in the playoffs, throwing for an average of 311.5 yards per game, with five touchdowns and one interception, numbers that are even more remarkable when you consider the fact that he faced the Jets and Ravens, who were first and seventh, respectively, in the league in pass defense this season. During the regular season, New Orleans was just 26th in the NFL in pass defense, though it should be noted they were third in the league in interceptions.
Player 2
- Joseph Addai: Addai hasn't been a big part of the Colts' offense during the team's playoff run, but that's mostly because he hasn't needed to be. He's rushed for only 107 yards on 27 carries in two games, and caught just four passes for 27 yards and hasn't scored a touchdown. The Saints were just 19th in the league against the run in the regular season, and allowed more touchdowns on the ground than all but three other squads.
- Pierre Thomas: Thomas has run the ball 27 times in New Orleans' two postseason victories, and racked up 113 yards and one touchdown. He's also caught six passes for 56 yards and one score, and though the Colts were 24th in run defense in the regular season, they also allowed fewer rushing scores than all but six other teams.
Player 3
- Marques Colston: Colston was New Orleans' leading receiver in the regular season, and he is tied with Devery Henderson for the team lead in receptions in the playoffs with eight. His 105 receiving yards are just under Henderson's total for the postseason, however, and his one touchdown also trails Henderson's two.
- Reggie Wayne: Wayne was magnificent most of the regular season, but he tailed off in the latter part of the year, and that has carried over to the postseason. Wayne's 11 catches and one touchdown are tied for second on the team, but his 118 receiving yards are third.
Player 4
- Reggie Bush: Bush has scored twice in the playoffs, once on a dazzling run against the Vikings, and one on a reception. For the postseason, he's run the ball 12 times for 92 yards, and caught six passes for 57 yards.
- Dallas Clark: Clark has 11 receptions in the postseason after snaring 100 in the regular season, and though he was second on the team with over 1,100 receiving yards during the regular season, his 94 so far in the playoffs is fourth on the team. He does have one touchdown catch, however.
Player 5
- Austin Collie: Collie leads the Colts with two touchdown grabs in the playoffs, and is second on the team in both catches with 11, and receiving yards, with 175. And despite the great play of Pierre Garcon during the playoffs, don't forget that Collie was third on the Colts in both receptions and touchdown catches in the regular season.
- Pierre Garcon: Garcon is having a fabulous postseason, leading Indianapolis in receptions, with 16, and receiving yards, with 185, while also scoring a touchdown. He may be having the best postseason of any individual player on either squad.
- Robert Meachem: Meachem has done little to establish himself in either of New Orleans' two playoff games, and has only two catches for 19 yards in the postseason. However, his nine touchdown catches in the regular season were good enough to tie him for the team lead with Marques Colston, and he's clearly a boom-or-bust player for this particular fantasy football contest.
Player 6
- Devery Henderson: Henderson has been the most productive Saints receiver so far in the playoffs, and is tied with Marques Colston for the team lead in receptions with eight. However, he leads New Orleans in receiving yards with 119, and touchdown catches, with two.
- Jeremy Shockey: Shockey is battling an injury - as usual - though he has been productive in the playoffs, catching four passes for 45 yards, and one touchdown reception. He will suit up for this game, but his health will likely have a big impact on how productive he will be.
- David Thomas: Thomas had taken advantage of his opportunity to play when Jeremy Shockey was injured in the regular season, and he has a chance to do that again in the Super Bowl. Thomas has caught three passes for 32 yards in New Orleans' two postseason contests, but if Shockey is not able to go all-out, Thomas could be in line for a good day.
Player 7
- Dwight Freeney: Freeney has torn ligaments in his ankle, and he's officially listed as questionable for the game. However, most believe he will attempt to play, though not nearly as much as usual, and maybe only on obvious passing downs.
- Robert Mathis: Mathis has not registered a sack in the postseason, but he was second on the Colts in the regular season with 9.5, and he also led the team with five forced fumbles to go with 37 tackles. However, keep in mind that if Freeney is limited, as expected, New Orleans may concentrate more on stopping Mathis with chip blocks and occasional double teams.
- Will Smith: Smith's 13.0 sacks during the regular season led all Saints players, and he also forced three fumbles and intercepted a pass to go with 49 tackles. He hasn't registered a sack so far in the playoffs, but he does have a forced fumble and interception, along with seven tackles.
Player 8
- Gary Brackett: In the regular season, Brackett was second in tackles for the Colts with 99 stops. He also had one sack and one interception during the year. He leads all Colts defenders in the postseason with 13 tackles, and also has the team's only sack.
- Clint Session: Session was Indianapolis' leading tackler in the regular season, taking down ball carries 103 times. He was productive in other areas as well, picking off two passes, and scoring one of the Colts' two defensive touchdowns. In the playoffs, he is fourth on the team in tackles with 11, but has not done anything else noteworthy.
- Jonathan Vilma: Vilma's 110 tackles in the regular season was tops among Saints players, but he did more than just hit people. The Pro Bowler also intercepted three passes and amassed two sacks. He has amassed just six tackles in the postseason, but he also has a forced fumble and interception.
Player 9
- Antoine Bethea: Bethea was all over the field in the regular season. He was third on the Colts with 95 tackles, but led them with four interceptions and also forced two fumbles. In the Colts' two playoff games, he's made just eight tackles, but also has one of the three interceptions Indy has managed.
- Roman Harper: Harper was second on the Saints in tackles during the regular season with 102, but led them with 10 tackles for loss. He also forced two fumbles and managed 1.5 sacks, though he didn't intercept any passes. So far this postseason, Harper has nine tackles and one forced fumble.
- Darren Sharper: Sharper's 70 tackles in the regular season placed him third on New Orleans' squad, but his contributions to the team's defense went far beyond that. He picked off nine passes, and more remarkably, scored three defensive touchdowns, which was one more than the entire Colts team had. He has 13 tackles so far in the playoffs, which is tied for second on the Saints, but hasn't gathered an interception.
Player 10
- Jabari Greer: Greer made 44 tackles in the regular season, and amassed the second-highest total of passes defended with 13. He also picked off two passes, and scored one defensive touchdown. So far in the playoffs, Greer has made 10 tackles and leads the team with three passes defended.
- Jacob Lacey: Lacey was fourth on Indianapolis' team with 85 tackles during the regular season, which is impressive considering he's a cornerback. He also led the team with 13 passes defended, and was second with three interceptions and scored one of their two defensive touchdowns. Lacey's 11 postseason tackles are tied for fourth on the Colts, and 10 of them have been solo stops, which is tied for second-most.
- Tracy Porter: Porter made 57 tackles in the regular season, but was around the ball a lot, forcing two fumbles, and snatching four interceptions, which was second on the team. He also scored a defensive touchdown. Porter also made the interception of Brett Favre in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship game, and is tied for second on the team with 13 tackles, not to mention one forced fumble.
Kicker
- Garrett Hartley: Hartley has only hit two field goals in the postseason, but both were between 40-49 yards, including the game-winning 40-yarder in overtime of the NFC Championship game. He's also hit all 10 of his extra-point tries.
- Matt Stover: Stover has nailed each of the five field goals he's attempted this postseason, and they've come from varying distances. His boots have come from 19, 21, 25, 33 and 44 yards. Stover has also connected on each of his five extra-point attempts.
Teams
- Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints: Picking the winner will net you 20 points in the contest, so go with your instincts. If it's any help, the Colts are favored by a decent margin, between five and six points depending on where you look. But, if you're playing a Super Bowl fantasy football contest, you undoubtedly already knew that, didn't you?
2009 Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Preview
The year 2008 was kind of a down year for the Indianapolis Colts. For the 6th time in his career Peyton Manning was one and done in the playoffs losing 23-17 to the San Diego Chargers in the Wildcard round. Moreover, last year was somewhat of an off year for Manning statistically despite winning his 3rd league MVP award and I witnessed firsthand what it is like to have a QB that is trying to shake the rust off after having off season knee injury. Manning heated up later in the year but unfortunately many owners did not have the supporting cast that I had to hold the fort down and thus missed out on the post season party.
In fact my Manning experience of last year has soured me on Tom Brady this year. You just cannot afford to play without a QB for the first 4 or 5 games of the season and that is what I endured last year. Furthermore, Brady's injury is said to be far more serious than Manning's was a year ago. The Colts will once again be good but will they make the playoffs? I am not so sure as Tennessee is already solid and both Jacksonville and Houston are primed to be far better this upcoming season. But again this is fantasy so I will focus my energy on the Colts position players and what they offer up in terms of fantasy potential in 2009.
As mentioned Manning did not have one of his best statistical outings of his career but he did enough to secure his 3rd league MVP award. I lived and died with Manning for the first 6-7 weeks before he finally started to heat up down the stretch. The Colts are heading into a major transformation this year as Head Coach Tony Dungy has retired and has been replaced by Jim Caldwell and 2 other prominent members of their staff as offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd are expected to retire due to changes in the NFL's pension policies. Moore would be a huge loss for Manning as he represents the only offensive coordinator that he has worked with in the NFL. Nonetheless, despite all of the turmoil in the coaching staff and the departure of Marvin Harrison look for Manning to continue his assault on the NFL's passing records.
Why? For starters, Manning is just that good and he still has most of his weapons at his disposal including Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark. Furthermore, another major variable in Manning's favor this year is that center Jeff Saturday will be healthy. Ahhh I know what you are saying. "What could a center possibly have to with fantasy performance"? TONS!!!!! I watched most of the Colts games last year and it was painfully obvious that the whole offensive line was completely out of sink without Saturday's presence and this lead to a lack of continuity and rhythm from the whole offense. The Colts will not have it easy this year.
The AFC South is markedly improved than in previous years. You know Tennessee is solid but Jags and the Texans both look to be much improved this year and the Texans in particular are specifically addressing their defense year in and year out in an all out effort to stop Manning and the Colts. Expect Manning this year to post his usual numbers in 2009 of about 4000-4500 yards passing and about 30-35 TD's. Look for Manning to be either the 2nd or 3rd QB taken this summer behind Drew Brees somewhere in the middle of round 2.
Joseph Addai is a complete joke. I have thought Addai has been overrated since his inception into the NFL in 2006 and now I pretty much think he just plain sucks. The Colts were obviously hoping that Addai would be the next Edgerrin James but has not even come close to living up to that standard. For starters, he is injury prone and it seems like he truly doesn't want to play with pain. Furthermore, Addai also vanishes from far too many games for my liking leaving Dominic Rhodes (who has since departed to Buffalo) to do the dirty work. If you remember that is exactly what went down in the Super Bowl against the Bears a few years ago. Rhodes was clearly the main back n that game and I think it is funny because this year someone inevitably will draft Addai high simply because he is a RB. WHY?????? Again, read my article "Draft RB's Early? Buyer Beware" to gain some insight as to why that is NOT a good idea.
Apparently, I am not the only one not sold on Joseph as the Colts used their first round selection on the stud RB Donald Brown out of Connecticut. Brown will immediately step in and at least split carries with Addai if not more and to be quite frank I look for him to be the much more polished back by the end of the year. Personally, I think Addai is no more than a number 3 back or a Flex option for 2009 but you can mark my words he will be gone in most drafts no later than the early 3rd round. I could be wrong but I doubt it. As for Brown, keep an eye on him in the middle rounds and don't be scared to take a chance on him this year. Why??? Well, let me just say Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Steve Slaton. Nuff said.
Obviously, all the Colts receivers are solid fantasy options. Wayne, is a surefire number 1 WR and is a model of consistency much in the same manner Harrison was for so many years. Although, Wayne is solid I would caution not to select him ahead of the following receivers: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, or Randy Moss. That is the crème of the crop in terms of NFL receivers these days but if you go a different route on draft day and get some RB's early you may be looking at the likes of Wayne, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, or Marques Colston as your number 1 WR. I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with that but don't expect Wayne to be a Fitz or Megatron in terms of his big play ability.
Watch out for Gonzalez this year. The former Ohio State product is heading into his 3rd NFL season which is historically when many receivers break out. Add to the equation that Harrison is gone and you realize that '09 could be Gonzo's year. I look for Gonzalez to break the 1000 yard plateau this year for the first time and to pop it in the end zone 8-10 times. Those numbers would make him a nice number 2 fantasy wide out though on draft day don't give him that much respect. Not yet. A year from now may be completely different as we may be talking about Gonzalez in the stud capacity. For now, treat Gonzo as a number 3 WR with plenty of upside and expect him to go around the mid-way point of most drafts this summer probably around the 7th-8th round. The Colts also drafted WR Austin Collie out of BYU in the 4th round of this year's draft. Keep an eye on Collie as he essentially fills the role Gonzalez did a couple years ago when he first broke into the league.
Dallas Clark presently remains one of the elite TE's in the NFL along with Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Tony Gonzalez. Not much to say here about Clark. A surefire number 1 fantasy option that will continue to catch all kinds of passes from Manning and well worth the 5th-6th round pick it will take to secure his services this fall.
Adam Vinatieri is a number 1 fantasy kicker based on his reputation, he plays in a dome, and the Colts score a lot of points. That is pretty much my equation for kickers and the ALWAYS represent my final pick in drafts. The Colts DST is intriguing because of Bob Sanders, and Dwight Freeney and can be used in a pinch depending upon the match up. However, in terms of nabbing a week in and week out DST there are far better options at this point than the Colts. Next up: The Houston Texans
Chris Limburg is the fanatical purveyor of gothicfootball.com: A Oakland Raider and fantasy football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL and fantasy football. Sign up for my free newsletter at: [http://www.gothicfootball.com]
Fantasy Football Playoff Challenge Forecast
The NFL's regular season is over, but the fantasy football season continues. Hopefully your fantasy football team was successful this season, but if not, one more chance for redemption awaits you. And even if you tasted success, and won your league, the playoffs allow you one more opportunity for fantasy football glory. And to help you achieve that exaltation, here are our player rankings.
Player 1
1) Peyton Manning: Despite playing less than a full game in each of his final two contests, Manning was second in the NFL in completions, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns (tied with Brett Favre). All that and his team was working on an undefeated season before essentially forfeiting their final two games.
2) Drew Brees: Brees set the NFL record for single-season completion percentage and led the NFL with 34 touchdown passes despite sitting out Week 17. If you believe the Saints' late-season struggles were just a blip on the radar, Brees is an excellent option.
3) Philip Rivers: Rivers never seems to get mentioned when the top quarterbacks in the league are mentioned, but fantasy football enthusiasts know plenty about him. His 104.4 quarterback rating for the season was third in the league, and he was in the top-10 in both passing yards and touchdown throws.
4) Tony Romo: Romo had a great season, coming in third in the NFL in passing yards, and he happens to be playing his best football right now. Dallas is the No. 3 seed in the NFC, and many pundits like them to make a run at the Super Bowl.
5) Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was fourth in passing yards, passing scores and quarterback rating for this season, so there's no doubt he is one of the best in the game. Green Bay is the fifth seed as well, which means it's unlikely they'd be playing any home games. He's the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate in this group.
6) Brett Favre: Favre had a remarkable year in every way, and he ended the regular season with a flourish. You have to wonder, however, if the Vikings will gear up the running game more in the playoffs than they did towards the end of the regular season.
Player 2
1) Kurt Warner: We all saw what Warner could do last season if he got hot in the playoffs, and despite the Cards getting waxed by the Packers last week, it didn't seem like they gave their full effort, did it?
2) Donovan McNabb: McNabb was worse than his pedestrian numbers (20-of-36, no touchdowns, no interceptions) indicated last week against the Cowboys, as he missed a number of open receivers. That and the fact that Philly is the No. 6 seed in the NFC will lead some to be pessimistic about him for a postseason fantasy football run, but remember that Philly had won six in a row, and McNabb has led his team on a number of deep playoff runs.
3) Tom Brady: While we certainly believe the Patriots can make an extended playoff run, Brady is dealing with a plethora of problems. First and foremost are his busted bones - he reportedly has three cracked ribs and a broken index finger on his right (throwing) hand. Not to mention the fact that Brady has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of his last four games, and his leading pass-catcher, Wes Welker, tore up his knee and will miss the playoffs.
4) Joe Flacco: If you're looking for a sleeper candidate, Flacco may be your man. He doesn't put up huge numbers, but the Ravens have the running game and defense necessary to allow them to make an extended push in the playoffs, with Flacco doing enough to give you decent fantasy points along the way.
5) Carson Palmer: Really, Palmer and Mark Sanchez should be 6A and 6B, as neither is much of an option. Palmer was horrendous against the Jets last week, completing one of his 11 throws, for zero yards. New York is No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, but even if Cincy does beat them, Palmer won't give you much.
6) Mark Sanchez: Sanchez is the poorest passer among quarterbacks whose teams made it to the playoffs, and he should be treated as such here. Even a Super Bowl run for him may not produce equal numbers equal to two games from other quarterbacks in the playoffs.
Player 3
1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson led the NFL in rushing scores, and despite the fact he didn't have a 100-yard rushing game in the playoffs, his fantasy football value is beyond doubt, and there's reason to think that if the Vikings advance to the Super Bowl, he'll have a lot to do with it.
2) Ray Rice: Rice has huge value in this scoring format due to his pass-catching acumen, and if you believe that the Ravens can win at least one game, he may be worth choosing.
3) Joseph Addai: Addai doesn't rack up huge yards, but he was tied for ninth in the league with 10 rushing scores, catches the ball quite a bit, and also is on a team many think is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
4) Thomas Jones: Jones has a tough go of it in the first round, against the Bengals' seventh-ranked run defense, and though he ran for two scores against them last week, he gained just 78 yards on 27 carries.
5) Ryan Grant: Grant is an excellent runner, and the Packers blew away the Cardinals last week, but his lack of receptions really hurts his value.
6) Cedric Benson: Benson will have to be most of the offense if Cincinnati is to advance in the postseason, but the Jets are a tough defense and there is no frame of reference for how he'll do against them because he sat out last week in their contest.
Player 4
1) LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson has the advantage of being the lead back on a team that very well could wind up in the Super Bowl. Still, he had just one game with at least 75 rushing yards this season and two games with more than two receptions.
2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas had a bruised rib which was part of the reason he didn't suit up last week, but it's not a serious injury. He's a do-it-all back whose only question mark is how many carries he'll get.
3) Marion Barber: Barber had a solid season, though he carried the ball 20 times just once, and not more than 17 in any of his last six games. On a positive note, he did manage 91 yards last week against the Eagles.
4) Reggie Bush: Bush is more of a slot receiver than a running back, but the Saints clearly have the ability to make the Super Bowl, and he could catch enough passes to make him a worthwhile option.
5) Beanie Wells: Wells is now the lead back on a Cardinals team that we all know is dangerous considering what they did last season, and that was without a running game that Wells now provides them.
6) Brian Westbrook: Westbrook is a real wild card, and though we're not high on him due to what could be limited usage, if the Eagles wind up making a solid postseason run, Westbrook could be a big part of that, especially catching the ball.
Player 5
1) Felix Jones: Jones' explosiveness is what makes him an attractive option in this group. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry this season, tying Jamaal Charles for the highest average of any back with at least 100 carries. He also catches a decent amount of passes and received at least 10 carries in each of his last four games.
2) Darren Sproles: Speaking of explosive, Sproles fits right into that category, and he's also a very good receiver out of the backfield, but he doesn't receive the amount of carries Jones gets.
3) Chester Taylor: Taylor is a solid player who totes the rock between 5-10 times per game with 2-4 catches per. He could have good value if you think the Vikings are Super Bowl-bound.
4) Willis McGahee: We all saw what McGahee could do in Baltimore's last game of the season, and it may surprise you to know that he tied for fifth in the NFL with 12 touchdown runs.
5) Donald Brown: If the Colts weren't as good as they were, Brown would be last on this list, but he can pick up points based simply on the fact he may play more games. But he's clearly second fiddle to Joseph Addai, and has battled injuries all year.
6) Tim Hightower: Hightower received double-digit carries just once in his final five games, and he isn't explosive with the ball in his hands. What he does bring is potential fantasy points due to his ability to catch the ball.
Player 6
1) Dallas Clark: Clark was fifth in the NFL in receptions this season, tying teammate Reggie Wayne with 100 passes caught. He also tied Wayne for seventh in the league in touchdown grabs with 10, and is the most reliable pass-catching tight end in football.
2) Reggie Wayne: Wayne's numbers nearly mirrored Clark's in every way but receiving yards, where he picked up 158 more. Yet he's behind Clark due to his slow end to the year. He had fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of his final six games.
3) Sidney Rice: Rice broke out this season to place fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,312 on 83 receptions for a robust average of 15.8 yards per catch. But with receptions so valuable in this fantasy football scoring format, he ranks behind both Indy players.
4) Antonio Gates: Gates is one of the best pass-catching tight end in the game, and arguably number one. He ended the season on a great note, catching a touchdown in each of his final four contests.
5) Vincent Jackson: Jackson started hot, slowed down, then got hot again, racking up 100 yards in two of his final three games. His inconsistency is a concern, especially with so few games in the postseason to make his mark.
6) Marques Colston: There's nothing wrong with selecting Colston, it's just that the Saints have so many weapons, you never can tell who will be the player Drew Brees goes to in any specific game.
Player 7
1) Randy Moss: Moss tied for the league lead in touchdown catches with 13, and without Wes Welker, the onus to do big things in the New England passing game falls squarely on him.
2) Miles Austin: No receiver is currently playing better than Austin right now, who is physically dominating his opponents. He gained 90 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games, and wound up third in the league in that statistic.
3) Larry Fitzgerald: One of the players tied with Moss for the most touchdown catches in the NFL was Fitzgerald, though all things considered, he had a bit of a disappointing season, especially where receiving yards are concerned - he ranked 17th in the NFL with 1,092.
4) DeSean Jackson: Jackson is capable of pretty much anything, but he ended the season with two games of fewer than 50 receiving yards, and plays a Cowboys team that held him in check in Week 17.
5) Greg Jennings: Jennings' four touchdowns on the season was a huge disappointment to fantasy football owners across the land, though he still gained over 1,100 yards. But it's hard to ignore his lack of trips to the end zone and the fact that he caught fewer than 70 passes on the year.
6) Chad Ochocinco: Ochocinco will have to go up against Darrelle Revis in the Bengals' opening playoff game, and Revis, combined with a knee bruise, held Ochocinco to zero catches and zero yards in Week 17.
Player 8
1) Jason Witten: Witten's 94 catches this season were ninth in the NFL, though he only scored twice - once in Week 2, and again in Week 17 - against the very same Eagles team he'll be facing this week.
2) Brent Celek: Celek has become a trusted option for Donovan McNabb, and has proven that all season, but especially in the final weeks. He's the only one that didn't seem to have the dropsies in Week 17 against the Cowboys, a game in which he had seven receptions for 97 yards.
3) Percy Harvin: Harvin is a home run hitter who can find the end zone any time he touches the ball. He'll also run the ball at least once per game, giving him further value. By no means is he a bad option, it's just that he may not get as many looks as some other players in this group. Unless you think the Vikings are headed to the Super Bowl; then, by all means, insert him in your lineup.
4) Anquan Boldin: Boldin is suffering from injuries to both his knee and ankle, and may not suit up for Arizona's initial playoff game, so check his status before employing him in your fantasy football lineup.
5) Donald Driver: Driver had six receptions for 65 yards in Week 17 against Arizona, but he hasn't had a big game since Thanksgiving, and ended the season with fewer than 80 receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games
6) Derrick Mason: Mason is as reliable as they come, but Baltimore will win by running the ball, and their prospects for going deep into the playoffs seem remote.
Player 9
1) Julian Edelman: Edelman takes over the Wes Welker role in the New England offense, and that means big things in this scoring format. For example, in Week 17 he was targeted a whopping 15 times and came up with 10 catches for 103 yards.
2) Jermichael Finley: Finley is on his way to becoming one of the league's elite tight ends, and he finished the season with a bang, gaining 80 receiving yards or scoring a touchdown (or both) in each of his final five games.
3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon battled a hand injury late in the year that stunted what was seemingly excellent growth throughout the season. He was really playing well in the middle of the year before this injury caught up to him, and he can be effective on a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
4) Robert Meachem: Meachem was extremely hot in the middle of the year, catching a touchdown in five straight games from Weeks 9-13. He's only scored once since then, however, and gained at least 70 yards just once in his final seven contests.
5) Jeremy Maclin: Maclin, Philly's first-round pick this year, has had a very good rookie season, but he's behind both Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson on the depth chart, and had fewer than 50 yards in both of his meetings with Dallas this season, the team the Eagles will face in the first round of the playoffs.
6) Jerricho Cotchery: The Jets pound the rock on the ground to win their games, and despite the fact that Cotchery and Mark Sanchez clearly have a solid chemistry, he's really not worth using.
Player 10
1) Devery Henderson: It's a gamble placing Henderson here, but one that could really pay off. He gained 804 yards this season on 51 receptions, and is always a threat to make one or two huge plays per game.
2) Bernard Berrian: Berrian had a highly disappointing season for his fantasy football owners, but he's on a Vikings team that isn't afraid to use all of their options, and one that could make a significant postseason run.
3) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey has been battling an injury, and hasn't caught a pass since Week 14. Still, it's possible he comes up with a solid postseason effort, because everyone on the Saints is capable of doing so considering how much they spread the ball around.
4) Braylon Edwards: Edwards gained less than 50 receiving yards in six of his final seven games, but he has the capability to deliver. Still, it's difficult to believe in him, especially considering the Jets are the lowest seed in the AFC, and win by running the ball and defense.
5) Roy Williams: If Williams gets the opportunity, he's shown he can make some things happen, but whether he does or not is anyone's guess. He's extremely frustrating to fantasy football owners, and can't be trusted, even if his talent says he can.
6) Steve Breaston: Breaston has ceded catches and yards to Early Doucet, so unless it's found out that Anquan Boldin's injury is a serious one, you should leave him be.
Player 11
1) Austin Collie: With Pierre Garcon out, Collie flourished, catching a touchdown in three consecutive games from Weeks 13-15. He also had nearly 100 yards in Week 16 and is a promising threat to, at the minimum, give you fantasy points with receptions, if not huge yards.
2) Malcolm Floyd: Floyd actually picked up 776 receiving yards on the season, which was more than players like Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin and Robert Meachem. The problem was he did it on just 45 catches, which hurts in this scoring format, and he found the end zone only one time.
3) Patrick Crayton: Crayton is option three or four on the Dallas depth chart, depending on if Roy Williams actually shows up. But he had a big game against the Eagles in Week 17, and shouldn't be completely discounted because of his low spot on the pecking order.
4) James Jones: Jones did more than you might think by the Packers this season. He caught just 32 passes, but gained 440 yards, and more importantly, caught five touchdowns, which was one more than teammate Greg Jennings.
5) Todd Heap: Heap caught two touchdowns in each of his game during Week 15 and 16, and while that meant gold if you had the cajones to use him during your fantasy football playoffs, it was a rare feat for him, and he's just as likely to pick up 30 yards on two catches.
6) Dustin Keller: Keller is a middling option who didn't catch more than three passes or gain even 35 yards in any of his final five games.
Player 12
1) Nate Kaeding: Kaeding tied David Akers for the league lead in field goals, and was one of just two players who made 25 or more kicks to make at least 90 percent of his tries. He's the best kicker on a team with realistic Super Bowl expectations.
2) Ryan Longwell: Longwell has the benefit of kicking indoors until/if he reaches the Super Bowl, which is a nice bonus. He also plays on a high-scoring team and led the NFL in extra points made.
3) Garrett Hartley: Hartley only played five games this season, and though he was 9-for-11 in field goals, he only attempted one kick from 40 yards and beyond, and missed that kick. Still, he's on a team with a potent offense, and could be kicking in three games, which means plenty of points.
4) David Akers: As mentioned, Akers was tied for the league lead in field goals made. But he's on the sixth-seeded team in the NFC, and it may be difficult for the Eagles to advance deep into the postseason. Still, they very well could win a game or two, possibly making Akers a worthwhile selection.
5) Stephen Gostkowski: Gostkowski is on a team that can put up a lot of points, and has at least one home game, but his problem is long-distance kicking - he made only seven of his 11 kicks from 40 yards or beyond.
6) Jay Feely: Feely wasn't always accurate, making just over 83 percent of his field goal tries, but he was tied for third in the league in kicks made. Still, there are other options in this group that are better simply because they are on better teams.
7) Mason Crosby: Crosby made only 75 percent of his kicks this season, which is the worst percentage in this group. And he was only 6-of-13 from 40 yards or beyond.
8) Shaun Suisham: Suisham is a solid kicker, but he and Hartley are the only ones in this group not to have made a 50 yarder, and Suisham played nine more games than Hartley.
Player 13
1) Colts: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.
2) Chargers:
3) Patriots:
4) Bengals:
5) Jets:
6) Ravens:
Player 14
1) Saints: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.
2) Vikings:
3) Cowboys:
4) Cardinals:
5) Packers:
6) Eagles:
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