My Dallas Clark Blog

I've published 32 of my fantasy football picks for quarterbacks. These are top 5 picks. If you are new to fantasy football, this is a place to start your own quarterback rankings list. These may change as the year progresses.

1. Drew Brees/Saints

- The Super Bowl MVP should again have a big year in 2010. A big key to his success could be the re-signing of RB Pierre Thomas. Although RB Reggie Bush has shown improvement in the running game, he is still a much deadlier pass catcher than runner. Thomas adds the threat of a running game, which can take some pressure off of Brees on early downs. With the emergence of Robert Meachem at WR along with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and TE's Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, and rookie Jimmy Graham, and a very good offensive line, Brees should once again be among the best fantasy players at his position.

2. Aaron Rodgers/Packers- With the team as a whole continually improving, Rodgers has the chance to put together another spectacular season. While the offensive line is adequate, it would be scary to see what kind of numbers Rodgers could put up with one of the better offensive lines in football. Jermichael Finley has the potential to become one of the top TE's in the NFL, and the presence of Donald Driver and Greg Jennings at WR makes Rodgers a fantasy force to be reckoned with.

3. Peyton Manning/Colts- Peyton is Peyton, and he proved his legacy is a strong one by again having an MVP type year and leading his team to the Super Bowl. He did it without the great Marvin Harrison and his "replacement" Anthony Gonzalez being injured for the entire season. With WR Austin Collie coming off an excellent rookie season and WR Pierre Garcon continuing to improve, there is no reason to think that Manning will not have a stellar season again in 2010. WR Reggie Wayne is still one of the top WR's in the league, and TE Dallas Clark should again be one of the top 3 TE's, adding more certainty to the fact that Manning will be one of the top fantasy QB's taken this season.

4. Philip Rivers/Chargers- Rivers' success will depend a lot on the re-signing of WR's Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, who both remain unsigned at the moment. Not that Floyd has proven to be a great receiver, but he's the best they have next to the ever improving Vincent Jackson. Jackson showed last year he could be one of the top WR's in the NFL, but without him Rivers' WR's would be Legedu Naanee' and Craig Davis or rookie free agent Seyi Ajirotutu. Antonio Gates is still a monster at TE, and rookie Dedrick Epps may get some looks at the 2nd TE, with Darren Sproles and rookie Ryan Matthews also catching some passes out of the backfield, but without Jackson and Floyd you can't expect Rivers to put up the numbers he has been. Keep an eye on this situation, as Rivers may move down if these guys, especially Jackson, decide they won't re-sign.

5. Tom Brady/Patriots- While Brady may not be worthy of one of the top 3 spots anymore, he is still one of the better fantasy QB's in the league. Randy Moss may not exactly give 100 percent on every play, but he is still one of the top 5 WR's in the game. Wes Welker's injury is not as bad as it was originally thought, and they added rookie Taylor Price and veteran Torry Holt to their receiving corps as well, meaning they should be better or at least just as good as last year. RB Kevin Faulk is also a reliable receiver and the combination of ex-Falcon/Titan Alge Crumpler and rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at TE also means that there will be some passes thrown to that position. With one of the top 10 offensive lines in football, there's no reason to believe that Brady will not be a top five QB again in 2010.

So there you have it. On half of my complete fantasy football picks for quarterbacks.

Depending on how strong the rest of your team is you could likely win a championship with the top 16, but to find out the complete list you need to check out my complete list of 32 fantasy football picks for Quarterback position. Feel free to start your own fantasy football cheatsheet with this list. Keep up on any updates to my fantasy football rankings and picks at http://JohnnyNFL.com

If you're a true degenerate who can't wait until the Super Bowl kicks off, one of the best ways to pass time, and maybe make a few extra bucks at the same time, is to check out the available quarterback prop bets. Both quarterbacks in this game are very interesting, though not at all for the same reason. If you have any theory at all about how the game is going to go then you almost certainly have put a good deal of thought into the role that the quarterbacks will play into your imagined outcome. It only makes sense, then, that you would extend your handicapping a bit to have some fun and tackle the props. Here's a look at some factors to consider when you are pondering some of the props:

Peyton Manning Passing Yards (over/under 273.5) - If Manning is in form then this number is obviously no challenge for him. Manning threw for at least 274 yards nine times in the 16 regular season games, but he eclipsed that number just once in the three playoff games. He went over in style against the Patriots in his most recent game, though. That means he went over 10 times and under nine times - not surprisingly, the number is well picked.

The Bears are perceived to have a solid defense, but ten teams, including the Colts, actually allowed fewer passing yards per game than Chicago. Indianapolis played five games against those teams, and Manning only went over 273.5 yards once. On the other hand, the Pats and the Bears had similar passing numbers and Manning shredded New England. Drew Brees, another pretty good passer, also shredded the Chicago secondary for a ton of yards last time out.

The final interesting consideration here is in the match-ups. Neither Marvin Harrison nor Reggie Wayne have had particularly good playoff runs. Manning's go-to guy in the post season has been tight end Dallas Clark. He has had two exceptional playoff games, and an unimpressive showing against Baltimore. The Ravens had the depth and talent at linebacker to contain the tight end threat. Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are just as talented as the Ravens' backers, so Clark could be in for a long day. That could hurt Manning's totals.

Peyton Manning Rushing Attempts (over/under 1.5) - Manning ran either once or no times in 10 of 16 regular season games. That would mean that under, at +120, could present a little value. The margin for error is so slim, though, that it probably isn't worth it. It also doesn't seem to be a great deal to choose the over when it is at -160 - we're not exactly talking about Michael Vick.

Peyton Manning - Times Sacked (over/under 1.5) - The Bears don't have the best pass rush in the league, but they can pressure the passer when they want to. It doesn't take a genius to recognize that Manning can be flustered if you can consistently get to him. That's what worked for the Patriots in the first half, and what worked so well for Pittsburgh last year. You'd have to think, then, that Chicago will be sending the cavalry after Manning.

The odd thing, though, is that despite the fact that anyone with eyes can see that the pass rush is effective against Manning, and despite Manning's almost comical lack of mobility, he doesn't get sacked that much. He was brought down twice or more just six times in 19 games this year. One of those six games was last time out, but three of them came in the first four games of the year. That means that the Indianapolis offensive line is playing better for the most part. That could make the under (-120) reasonably attractive. Unless, that is, the Bears have spent a lot of time watching Patriots film tape. No team besides New England was able to sack Manning more than twice. The Pats took him down three times on two separate occasions.

Rex Grossman Passing Yards (over/under 215.5) - On first glance the under would seem like a fairly easy pick. If you believe the hype about how bad Grossman is, that is. Grossman went over this total seven times during the season, though just once after week nine. His percentage has improved slightly in the post season - he has gone over once in two playoff games.

There's a factor lost in all the talk about the Indianapolis defense all year. The Indy run defense was almost incomprehensibly bad during the regular season, but their passing defense was equally good. In fact, they had the second best pass defense in the whole league. If the secondary can play their own game against the pass then Grossman will struggle to come anywhere near this number. This will be especially true if the Bears, unlike the Patriots last week, choose to stick with the run longer before giving up on it, and if they can find some gaps in the suddenly stout Indy run defense. If that's the case then Grossman likely won't bother testing the pass too much and he'll stay under.

Rex Grossman Completion Percentage - I don't want to sound like I am defending Grossman here, but you can't accuse him of being inaccurate. Over the course of the season he completed almost 55 percent of his passes, and that is despite having a couple of games, like the infamous zero QB rating game against Green Bay, which have been well below that. In fact, in seven of his 18 games he has had a completion percentage of between 50.6 and 60.5. You can get +200 to bet that his Super Bowl percentage will fall within that range, so that would be a profitable bet over the long term given his current rate. He had four more games that had percentages higher than 60.5, so betting on him to have a particularly bad day, though it could happen, probably doesn't present much value.

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